Click on titles to read full story

FED 07 - Arctic melt and its lessons for climate change.

Recent record melting of the North Pole's summer ice has show that the global emergency of climate change is here now.

See a time sequence of this this sea ice melt if the above shows as a still.

Scientists are now fearing we are passing the tipping point for complete melting of the Arctic summer ice.

Scientists are suggesting we should have peaked our global emissions by 2005 but in fact in Australia and globally we are increasing our emissions at record rates.

We need to act now to make massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions now.

David Spratt from Carbon Equity has produced a report on the implications of the Arctic Warming. Released 8 October 2007.

The Arctic sea ice is disintegrating "100 years ahead of schedule", having dropped 22% this year below the previous minimum low, and it may completely disappear as early as the northern summer of 2013. This is far beyond the predictions of the International Panel on Climate Change and is an example of global warming impacts happening at lower temperature increases and more quickly than projected. What are the lessons from the Arctic summer of 2007?

Findings...

* The Arctic's floating sea ice is headed towards rapid summer disappearance as early as 2013, a century ahead of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections.
* The rapid loss of Arctic sea ice will speed up the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet, and a rise in sea levels by even as much as 5 metres by the turn of this century is possible.
* The Antarctic ice shelves react far more sensitively to warming temperatures than previously believed.
Long-term climate sensitivity (including "slow" feedbacks such as carbon cycle feedbacks which are starting to operate) may be double the IPCC standard.
* Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are now growing more rapidly than "business-as-usual", the most pessimistic of the IPCC scenarios.
* Temperatures are now within ?1?C of the maximum temperature of the past million years.
* The 2?C warming cap is a political compromise; with the speed of change now in the climate system and the positive feedbacks that 2°C will trigger, it looms for perhaps billions of people and millions of species as a death sentence.
* To allow the reestablishment and long-term security of the Arctic summer sea ice it is likely to be necessary to bring global warming back to a level at or below 0.5?C (a long-term precautionary warming cap) and for the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases at equilibrium to be brought down to or below a long-term precautionary cap of 320 ppm CO2e.
* The IPCC suffers from a scientific reticence and in many key areas the IPCC process has been so deficient as to be an unreliable and dangerously misleading basis for policy-making."

Download full 20 page report

admin – Mon, 2007 – 10 – 08 11:27
links inline